آشكارسازي و پيش بيني تغييرات پوشش اراضي اطراف رودخانه زاينده رود

چكيده انگليسي :

138 Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction Around Zayandehroud River Mohsen Iranmehr Mohseniranmehr112@yahoo com Date of Submission 2014 09 21 Department of Natural Resources Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran Degree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisor Alireza Soffianian soffianian@cc iut ac irSupervisor Saied Pourmanafi Spourmanafi@cc iut ac irAbstract Land use always is one of the major factors that human has affected their environmental through this factor Remote sensing technology as a valuable solution for monitoring detecting identifying and natural resources andenvironment zoning and especially is used for providing land use map of all over the world These maps arebasic requirements for an environmental management and monitoring and they are used at the planning anddecision making in the various sectors changes Monitoring is an important process at the using of remotesensing Post classification Comparison is one of the most practical methods which are used expansively forland use and land cover monitoring The aim of this study is detecting and predicting of land use and land coveraround the zayandehroud river In this study It was used from Landsat images OLI ETM and TM relating tothe years 2013 2003 and 1985 respectively for taking land cover and land use maps and also assessing thechanging trend around the zayandehroud river Firstly all required images after pre processing were detectedusing different analysis and indicators and finally it was used from the hybrid classification which is acombination of unsupervised and supervised classifications to classify the images After classification the landcover and land use were provided and classified in 10 categories of agricultural land forest dry land grassland bare land and sparse vegetation cover water area construction land the main roads rocky outcrops and salinewere The estimated accuracy of the generated land cover and land use maps by OLI ETM and TM imageswere calculated 91 43 88 45 and 81 76 respectively Then it was used from post classification comparison andChange Detection to detect changes in this period Furthermore it was used from Fusion CA Markov model forpredicting the development plans of cities and main roads in 2013 and then this map was compared with maps ofurban areas and main roads in 2013 to evaluate the CA Markov model for predicting the changes and in the end the map of urban areas and main roads until 1419 was predicted using the CA Markov model Change detectionresults showed that more than 80 of zayandehroud rivers and Gavkhoni wetland was dried during this periodand the social and ecological structure and physical stability of the region has been damaged seriously Alsosaline have been developed over four times in this period and the most developed urban areas was between 1985and 2003 with an average expansion of 952 hectares per year and the lowest growth has been done between 203to 2013 with an area of 552 hectares per year The results of Markov model is a matrix which shows thepossibility of changing in every land cover and land use class to other classes To determine the accuracy of thesimulated maps and attaining the prediction validity of CA Markov it was used from two methods of calculatingtables of agreement and disagreement and generating the prediction error method Components of agreement anddisagreement results show that the hybrid map agreement and prediction of 2013 is 0 81 and the disagreement is0 19 and assessing the error prediction of the CA Markov model for 2013 simulation at the three class showedhigh accuracy between the reference map and the forecasted maps In addition the modeling process showed thatby 1419 urban areas and main roads will reach about 85 247 and 22 117 hectares respectively Due to the dryingup of zayandehroud river and dehydration stresses created because of water shortage a development about 1 37in size of cultivation dependent on water at the western part of the region was

ايرانمهر، محسن

آشكارسازي و پيش بيني تغييرات پوشش اراضي اطراف رودخانه زاينده رود

مقايسه پس از طبقه بندي , مدل CA-Markov , ميزان مصرف آب , لندست