10439

9634

كارشناسي ارشد

آبياري و زهكشي

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده كشاورزي

1394

يازده، 74ص.: مصور، جدول، نمودار

جهانگير عابدي كوپايي، سعيد اسلاميان

حسين سقائيان نژاد، منيره بيابانكي

1394/06/28

مهدي قيصري، سعيد سلطاني كوپايي

1396/10/04

كتابنامه

كشاورزي

مهندسي كشاورزي

ID9634

به فارسي و انگليسي

75 Impacts of Climate Change on the Probability of the First Fall Frost and the Last Spring Frost Somayeh Rahimi Khoshouei Somayeh rahimi1987@yahoo com June15 2015 Department of Water Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisors J Abedi Koupai koupai@ cc iut ac ir S S Eslamian saeid@cc iut ac irAbstractChanging the date of the first fall frost and the last spring frost is a very important phenomenon inagriculture that can be one of the consequences of global warming One way to study future climate isusing general circulation models GCMs In this study observations of temperature and precipitationwere weighted by using Mean Observed Temperature Precipitation MOTP method This methodconsiders the ability of each model in simulating the difference between the simulated averagetemperature and average precipitation in each month in the baseline period and the correspondingobserved values The model that had more weight selected as the optimum model because it is expectedthat the model will be valid for future The outputs of GCM models based on the three emission scenariosA2 and B1 and A1B downscaled by LARS WG for six stations Isfahan Badroud Khour va Biabank Damaneh Fereidan Kashan and Hamgin The data were analyzed by SPSS software in 95 of confidencelevel P 0 05 The results indicated that in all six stations in future period 2020 2049 based on the threescenarios compared with baseline period 1971 2000 the first fall frost will occur later and the last springfrost will occur earlier The first fall frost will occur later for 2 days for Hamgin based on the B 1emission scenario to 8 days for Khour va Biabanak based on the A2 emission scenario and the lastspring frost will occur earlier for 2 days for Hamgin and Damane Fereidan based on the A 1B and B1emission scenarios to 6 days for Khour va Biabanak based on the A2 emission scenario The bestdistribution functions obtained using the software EasyFit for first fall frost and the last spring frost forthe baseline period and under climate change were selected and compared Key words Climate change Frosts LARS WG GCMs

جهانگير عابدي كوپايي، سعيد اسلاميان

حسين سقائيان نژاد، منيره بيابانكي

مهدي قيصري، سعيد سلطاني كوپايي