ارزيابي گسترش شهري بخش مركزي استان اصفهان و تأثير آن بر تغيير اقليم محلي

چكيده انگليسي :

136Evaluation of Urban Expansion in the Central Part of Isfahan Province and Its Impact on Local Climate Change Maliheh Alsadat Madanian m madanian@na iut ac ir April 7 2018 Department of Natural Resources Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree PhD Language PersianDr Ali Reza Soffianian soffianian@cc iut ac irDr Saeid Soltani Koupai ssoltani@cc iut ac irAbstractAs cities have been growing rapidly it is necessary to examine the rate of such growth and predictits future It is also essential to analyze the possible condition of climatic parameters in relation togreenhouse gas emissions in urban regions in order to manage land use cover changes as well asensuring the conservation of resources and the public health This study was carried out in thecentral part of Isfahan Province using eight Landsat images during hot and cold months of 1985 1992 2001 and 2015 In order to produce land use cover maps the support vector machinetechnique were utilized The results showed that the most important change had been the increase ofthe impervious surfaces by 2 8 times from 1985 to 2015 The LST maps showed that LST of the others class which mainly included bare lands was higher than that of other land use coverclasses including the impervious surfaces Then the urban heat island UHI in some of large citieswas investigated by comparing the mean LST inside and around the cities The results indicatedfluctuations in the intensity of UHI and the occurrence of the urban cool island at some dates Then the annual trend of air temperature the total precipitation the average relative humidity andwind speed was investigated using Mann Kendall test at several meteorological stations Theresults demonstrated that at Isfahan and Kabootarabad stations the average temperature theaverage minimum temperature and the maximum temperature had been significantly increased Atthe Eastern station there was a significant increase in the average temperature and the averagemaximum temperature The growth of impervious surfaces was then forecasted using the SLEUTHmodel by Historical and Compact Scenarios for the years 2030 2050 and 2070 According to theHistorical Scenario the impervious surfaces in 2070 will be about 2 4 times more than that in 2015 On the other hand it will be about 1 5 times in 2070 if the Compact Scenario occurs Finally byusing the impervious maps related to the Historical Scenario for the years 2050 and 2070 andconsidering emission scenarios the air temperature and total precipitation were investigated for2050 and 2070 time periods The results showed that in July the highest increase in the averageminimum temperature in the impervious surfaces of the city regions in RCP8 5 as compared toRCP2 6 will be 1 2 C in 2050 while it will be 2 9 C in the 2070 period Also in this month thehighest increase of the average maximum temperature in RCP8 5 2050 as compared to RCP2 6 will be 1 6 C for the impervious surfaces of cities in the 2050 period while this value will be 2 7 Cin the 2070 period In January the highest increase of the average minimum temperature for theimpervious surfaces of cities in RCP8 5 as compared to RCP2 6 was 0 8 C in 2050 while it willbe 1 8 C for the 2070 period Also in this month the highest increase in the average maximumtemperature for the impervious surfaces of cities in RCP8 5 as compared to RCP2 6 will be 1 2 Cin 2050 This value will be 2 9 C in 2070 According to RCPs8 5 the total precipitation willdecrease in urban impervious surfaces in the 2070 period as compared to the 2050 one This study in addition to predicting the expansion of impervious surfaces determined the likely future climateconditions of this area that will be affected by greenhouse gas emissions Using these results urbanplanners could plan urban development with a minimum temperature increase Keywords Emission scenarios Impervious surfaces SLEUTH Surface Urban Heat Island SUHI Surface Urban Cool Island SUCI

مدنيان، مليحه السادات

ارزيابي گسترش شهري بخش مركزي استان اصفهان و تأثير آن بر تغيير اقليم محلي

جزيره گرمايي شهري (SUHI) , جزيره سرمايي شهري (SUCI) , سطوح نفوذناپذير , سناريوهاي انتشار , SLEUTH