14812

13329

كارشناسي ارشد

مهندسي و مديريت منابع آب

اصفهان : دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان

1398

شانزده، 103ص. : مصور، جدول، نمودار

آزاده احمدي

كريم عباسپور

حميدرضا صفوي، اميد بزرگ حداد

1398/05/05

كتابنامه

مهندسي عمران

مهندسي عمران

1398/05/06

2550069

104 Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human activities on Runoff Reduction on upstream of the Zayanderood Dam Case Study Jamshid jalali j jalali@cv iut ac ir Civil Engineering Department Isfahan University of Technology 84156 83111 Isfahan Iran Degree M Sc Language Farsi Supervisor Dr Azadeh Ahmadi aahmadi@cc iut ac irAbstractClimate change and Human activities are the two main factors in changing the hydrologicalcycle processes trend Which as their own cause change in the spatial and temporaldistribution of available water as well as river flows Therefore it is very important todetermine the contribution of climate change and human activities to river flow changes toselect policies and suitable strategies that are consistent with the management and planningof regional water resources In this study four approaches have been used to differentiatethe effects of human activities and climate change on the Zayandehrud dam inflowfluctuations For this purpose firstly using the Man Kendall method analyzed the annualtrend of climatic precipitation and evapotranspiration potential and flow data The inflowdata trend at all stations was statistically significant with a decreasing value of the recentperiod runoff The result shows a decreasing trend in three precipitation stations which arestatistically significant and for potential evapotranspiration data except one station Zayandehrud Dam the significant and increasing trend Pettit test was used to calculate thebreakpoint runoff hydrological data the test results for two stations of Eskandari andMandarjan indicate 1996 as hydrological breakpoint and 2007 for QaleShahrokh Station Since it is necessary to select a specific year for a breakpoint in the simulation thiscalculation for evapotranspiration data was also done Given that the result was the vicinityof 1996 this year were chosen Then using three methods including climate elasticity Multiregression and least squares support vector machine model LS SVM the effects weredetermined To validate the results the hydrologic simulation method was used in thisregard the basin was calibrated and validated in the normal period using the semi distributedSWAT model Finally the contribution of climate change impacts and human activities toreducing runoff in the sub basin was calculated The results indicate a 16 to 48 percent shareof climate change and a 51 to 84 percent share of human activities in reducing runoff to theZayanderroud Dam To diminution the contribution of human activities in changing runoff three scenarios were defined including maintaining and replacing other cultures cultivationof wheat and barley with wheat and barley the maintenance of wheat and barley crops andthe replacement of other crops with potatoes and increased irrigation efficiency In all threescenarios the inflow of the Zayandehrud dam increased and the optimal scenario for allstations was first scenario Keywords separating the impacts Climate Elasticity Multi Regression HydrologicSimulation LS SVM Model SWAT Model

آزاده احمدي

كريم عباسپور

حميدرضا صفوي، اميد بزرگ حداد