ارزيابي اثرات تغيير اقليم بر منابع آب زيرزميني و تفكيك آن از برداشت ها، مطالعه موردي : آبخوان دامنه- داران و بوئين- مياندشت

چكيده انگليسي :

934 Evaluating the Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Resources and its Separation from Pumping Case Study Daamaneh Daaraan and Booein Miandasht Aquifers Alireza Ghaedamini Haruni Alirezaqamini@gmail com 22 06 2019 Department of Civil Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisor Dr H R Safavi hasafavi@cc iut ac irAbstractIncreasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has caused significant changes in the climate causingglobal warming which is a major threat to the agriculture sctors and human life Therefore it is essential to predict futureclimate change On the other hand groundwater resources are essential for human life and the environment but itsavailability with quality and quantity is endangered by various factors among which climate change plays a major role Groundwater resources also take a long time to be recharged so they need to be controlled by long term climatic conditions In this thesis while investigating the effects of changes in surface runoff recharge deep penetration and groundwaterlevel a management solution was proposed to reduce the amount of pumping to restore groundwater level In order toinvestigate the effects of changes on groundwater resources the combination of 9 GCM models under RCP2 6 RCP4 5and RCP8 5 scenarios were used to predict future temperature and precipitation 2019 2048 Also the IDW method wasused for spatial downscaling of GCM models and the LARS WG downscaling model was used for time downscaling oftemperature and precipitation parameters Then Wetspa rainfall runoff model was used to simulate and calculate surfacerunoff and future recharge then the MODFLOW code in the GMS environment used to assess the groundwater level in thefuture Finally three crop reduction scenarios were presented to revive the groundwater level of the Daamaneh Daaraanand Booein Miandasht aquifers The results showed that the temperature in all months and seasons would increase underall three scenarios RCP2 6 RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 with the average annual temperature in the study area under the scenarioRCP2 6 between 0 55 1 31 C under RCP4 5 scenario is between 0 81 1 49 degrees Celsius and under RCP8 5 scenariobetween 1 04 1 75 degrees Celsius The average annual rainfall also increases by 4 39 4 34 and 3 33 under RCP2 6 RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 scenarios respectively Evapotranspiration is also expected to increase in all months compared to thebase period The collective scale coefficients for calibration and validation of the Wetspa model were 83 7 and 81 81respectively indicating the very good performance of the model in runoff simulation The results of the climate changeeffects on surface runoff showed that annual average runoff in the future 2019 2048 will increase by 1 39 percentcompared to the base period 1976 2005 under RCP2 6 scenario but under RCP4 5 scenarios and RCP8 5 will decreaseby 0 14 and 1 91 respectively The effects of climate change in recharge also indicate that the average annual rechargein the future 2019 2048 will increase by 1 11 compared to the base period 1976 2005 under the scenario RCP2 6 butunder RCP4 5 and RCP8 scenarios will be 1 56 and 1 75 percent respectively The results of climate change effects ongroundwater level indicate that the groundwater level in 1407 Solar Year under RCP2 6 RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 scenarioswill decrease in both aquifers but in comparison to the unchanged state of the aquifer will increase 1 61 1 42 and 1 07mrespectively in the Daamaneh Daaraan aquifer 0 47 0 43 and 0 35 m in the Booein Miandasht aquifer under scenariosRCP2 6 RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 respectively The results indicate that the climate change in the 10 year period 1398 1407 would increase the groundwater level of the two studied aquifers compared with the uncharted state To investigate theeffects of pumping on groundwater level by calculating the difference between 1394 and 1384 year the drawdown in bothaquifers was divided into 5 region

قائداميني هاروني، عليرضا

ارزيابي اثرات تغيير اقليم بر منابع آب زيرزميني و تفكيك آن از برداشت ها، مطالعه موردي : آبخوان دامنه- داران و بوئين- مياندشت

تغييراقليم , تغذيه , LARS-WG , Wetspa , MODFLOW