توصيفگر ها :
پويايي سيستم ها , نظريه بازي ها , هم بست آب- غذا- جوامع شهري , تعادل نش , شهر اصفهان , كمبود آب
چكيده انگليسي :
Due to the increasing growth of urbanization and water demand in urban communities on the one hand and the decrease in rainfall and its temporal and spatial imbalance on the other hand, water supply in various sectors has faced problems. The challenges of managing water resources to meet the needs of domestic, industrial, agricultural, landscapes and urban services, as well as the relationship between water resources, food and the resident’s welfare resulting from these in arid and semi-arid areas such as large areas of Iran, due to the lack of renewable water, have become common problems. Due to being in a relatively dry climate, the city of Isfahan has a worse situation than other cities. The growth of the population and the existence of limited water resources in this city have caused concern for the supply of water needed in different parts. Therefore, it is important to manage water resources in order to create a balance between the water needed by different urban areas and the water resources available in this region. Therefore, integrated management is one of the basic solutions to solve the problem of water shortage in different parts. For this purpose, in this research, an integrated model of urban water system management was developed based on a conceptual model for the Water, Food and Societies NEXUS, and a conceptual model was developed using the systems dynamics approach. In this study, data related to the years 1396 to 1400 were collected. After that, linear optimization with three economic, environmental and social objectives was used to maximize the profit of the industry and agriculture sectors, maximize the amount of recharge and minimize the withdrawal from the aquifer and maximize the resident’s welfare in Isfahan city. In other words, three contradictory goals are used together, and this means an approach that can see several goals in itself. The results showed that by maximizing the economic function, the environmental function will be minimized and the amount of withdrawal from the amount of aquifer recharge will be significantly increased In fact, if the production of economic profit is equal to 27.97 thousand billion tomans, which is equivalent to the maximum profit of this sector, the withdrawal of underground resources will be about 150% (900 million cubic meters) more than the current conditions, which is in conflict with the environmental goal. On the other hand, with an increase in the amount of recharge (which means that recharge is at its maximum and withdrawals at its minimum), the economic function will have the lowest profit (18.83 thousand billion tomans). These two functions are in conflict with each other to a great extent, and the function of resident’s welfare will also have conflicts with each of these two functions, in such a way that as the resident’s welfare increases, the amount of the environmental function decreases. In fact, if the resident’s welfare is at its maximum, not only will the aquifer not be fed, but 214 million cubic meters will be withdrawn from the aquifer. Therefore, optimization in order to solve conflicts has created an answer that is far from reach. Therefore, to solve the problem, the solution of game theory has been used to solve the conflicts that have arisen. In the second stage, in order to solve the conflict between the goals, these conflicting goals are placed in front of each other and through the process of bargaining (as one of the best methods of game theory according to the conditions of this problem) the answer Nash optimum will be obtained. The property of the Nash equilibrium obtained from the algorithmic bargaining process ensures that each player has made his best decision against the constraints imposed by the other player. In other words, at this point, none of the three parties can gain more benefits, and therefore, the three players reach an agreement and balance, and water resources are allocated.
