Despite population and range declines, the Persian leopard (Panthera pardus tulliana) remains the most widespread large cat, a subspecies of leopard that is present in extensive mountainous landscapes of Iran, Anatolia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Human interventions are the major threat to the survival of the Persian leopard, and the reasons for population decline of this species, like other carnivores, include landscape changes, especially habitat destruction and fragmentation, livestock conflicts, illegal killings often resulting from conflicts with local communities, and prey reduction. Species conservation planning requires understanding both their biological and non-biological needs, and habitat assessment is a fundamental requirement to understand these needs. This study aimed to eva‎luate land use changes in the protected area and the Dena National Park over a 22-year period and their impact on habitat suitability and habitat corridors for the species. To assess land use changes, remote sensing satellite images of the area were taken for two periods, 2002 (1381) and 2024 (1403), and classified using the Support Vector Machine and Random Forest methods. After eva‎luating changes in each land use category, the derived land use map along with human variables of road density and village density, topographic variables of elevation, and surface roughness vector and habitat suitability model of wild goat (the main prey of leopards) were used to model habitat suitability for the species in the area. Habitat suitability modeling was conducted using Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, Random Forest, Maximum Entropy, and Generalized Boosting Model algorithms and then combined into an ensemble model. After preparing the distribution model for the present period (year 2024), the fitted model was used to predict species distribution in 2002. Additionally, the habitat suitability map was used to identify core habitat patches and model habitat corridors between them based on circuit theory. Land use change assessment results indicated an increase in residential and agricultural land area and a decrease in forest and rangeland use over the studied period. Prey presence was the most important environmental variable affecting leopard distribution, followed by variables of distance from residential areas, forest use density and digital elevation model in order of their impact on leopard distribution in the area. Comparing Persian leopard habitat suitability between 2002 and 2024 showed a reduction in habitat suitability area (1.4%) and core habitats (1%) for leopards within the studied area. Habitat corridor modeling results indicated strong habitat flow within protected areas but weaker flow in peripheral areas. Assessment of potential leopard habitat corridors for the studied period indicated reduced corridor flow intensity due to land use changes in the area. Ultimately, it is predicted that with the ongoing reduction in habitat suitability for Persian leopards and increased movement restrictions, the current trend will lead to increased human-leopard conflicts in the area and pose significant challenges for the long-term survival and conservation of the species.

محسن احمدي

منصوره ملكيان , عليرضا محمدي

محمودرضا همامي , سعيد پورمنافي