4301

4072

كارشناسي ارشد

بيابان زدايي

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده منابع طبيعي

1387

دوازده، 112، [II] ص.: مصور، جدول، نمودار

ص.ع. به: فارسي و انگليسي

سعيد سلطاني، نورالله مير غفاري

1/11/87

جهانگير عابدي كوپايي، افشين هنربخش

مهندسي منابع طبيعي

ID4072

به فارسي و انگليسي: قابل رؤيت د ر نسخه ديجيتال

Abstract The fresh water resources are limited in the world and their distribution isheterogeneous In the other hand industrial establishment and dam constructiondecrease the quality of these limited resources so the monitoring of water quality isnecessary and unavoidable There are different methods for consideration of waterquality changes statistic tests regression time series multivariate methods Inthis study monthly time series of water quality parameters SO4 2 Cl HCO3 pH EC SAR are used for study of Zayandehrud water quality For this purpose procedurepresented by Box Jenkins were used for modeling which contain three stages including model recognization parameter estimation and control of estimatedparameters For all parameters in six hydrometric stations ARIMA ARMA AR MA multiplicative or seasonal models were obtained However SO4 2 in Ghaleh Shahrokhstation HCO3 in Eskandari station EC in Polekale station pH in Polechoom station SAR and EC in Varzaneh station were not modelled After modeling pH Cl andHCO3 were forecasted from shahrivar 1384 up to shahrivar 1386 and the percentage oferror was calculated The lowest percentage of error was obtained for pH parameter Inadditional to modeling the correlation between the river discharge and otherparameters was calculated and it was distinguished that discharge has negativecorrelation with all parameters except pH in Eskandari station The mean of dischargein twenty years period showed that Ghaleh Shahrokh station has the highest andVarzaneh station has the lowest mean of discharge Key Words water quality modeling ARMA and ARIMA models time series Zayandehrud

سعيد سلطاني، نورالله مير غفاري

جهانگير عابدي كوپايي، افشين هنربخش