4801

4520

كارشناسي ارشد

برنامه ريزي سيستم هاي اقتصادي

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده صنايع و سيستمها

1388

دوازده، 104، ص: جدول، نمودار

ص. ع به : فارسي و انگليسي

اكبر توكلي

نادر شتاب بوشهري

4/9/88

علي همداني

1396/09/22

كتابنامه

مهندسي صنايع و سيستم ها

ID4520

به فارسي و انگليسي: قابل رويت در نسخه ديجيتال

Effect of Oil Price Fluctuation on Economic Growth A Case Study of Iran 1959 2007 Fatemeh Dastgerdy dastgerdy fatemeh@yahoo com 2009 07 05 Department of Industrial System Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisor Akbar Tavakoli PhD atavakoli@cc iut ac irAbstract The oil price change is one of the main sources of the economic growth fluctuation inexporting oil countries So the evaluation of changing in oil price is very essential To preventthe economic crisis and to protect the economic constancy Moreover the emphasis ofeconomic programs on determining a particular growth rate for GDP provides one moreimportant reason to study the quantitative relationship between oil price changes andeconomic growth In present research the effect of this change is analyzed on Iranian economic growth Inaddition the effect on other variables such as investment expenditures imports non oil exportare considered Applying a time series of yearly data from 1959 to 2007 and a VAR method different results are observed in the short and long runs The results show that in the long run the effect of oil price change has negative effect on GDPand oil export compared to its positive effect on private consumption and investment In theshort run the effect of oil price change on the all the variables are positive other than non oil export Furthermore the effect of oil price fluctuation on variables such as GDP imports private consumption investment and oil export are more pronounce Key words Oil price fluctuation economic growth VAR method

اكبر توكلي

نادر شتاب بوشهري

علي همداني