تحليل خطر پذيري روگذري آب در سد با در نظرگرفتن جنبه هاي هيدروليكي و هيدرولوژيكي ﴿مطالعه موردي: سد ونك﴾

چكيده انگليسي :

Risk Analysis for Dam Overtopping Considering Hydraulic and Hydrologic Parameters Vanak Dam as a Case Study Nikoo Mansouri nikoomnsr@yahoo com Date of Submission May 01 2011 Department of Civil Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran Degree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisor Phd Abdorreza Kabiri Samani akabiri@cc iut ac ir Advisor Phd Hamidreza Safavi hasafavi@cc iut ac ir AbstractMany developed countries have emphasized the security and safety of their dams Failure of infrastructure onthe densely populated land would potentially result in loss of many human lives and property damages Ifstructural safety is ever in doubt the dam cannot guarantee the lives of those who live at the downstream Therefore examination and maintenance of dam safety must be a priority Methods for computing risk andreliability have been established for a long time The return period method has been used for decades although this method only considers flood frequency Despite its simplified assumptions of uncertainties thereturn period method is still widely used in practice for evaluating the risk of hydraulic infrastructures In this study a probability based methodology is formulated to evaluate quantitatively and systematicallythe overtopping risk of earth dams This study considers the overtopping phenomena induced by theoccurrence of flood and wind effects The risk analysis based models for overtopping consist of randommodeling of the flood generation wind dynamic aspects reservoir routing reservoir geometry inflowdischarge outflow discharge dam height initial water surface and correction factor for increasing waterinduced by wind The load combination model which is used for the effects of flood and wind to gather isbased on Iran committee on large dams recommendations In this approach two combinations including aflood with the return period of 1000 years and a wind with the return period of 100 years and a flood withthe return period of 10000 years and a wind with the return period of 10 years are employed Also themaximum probable flood was considered Two risk computation techniques namely Monte CarloSimulation method and Latin Hypercube Sampling method are used and are compared For calibrating the results of simulation and modeling Vanak dam in Charmahal Bakhtiari is used as a casestudy The case study was employed to demonstrate how the total risk of overtopping over a practical casecould be estimated based on the proposed methodology Annual maximum series of peak flow discharge andwind velocity of Vanak dam are used to analyze extreme flood and wind with different frequencies by usinghydrological frequency analysis software HYFA Risk analysis results show that considering uncertaintiesof random parameters affects significantly the dam reliability Also overtopping risk of Vanak dam is notsensitive to increasing initial water surface By increasing uncertainty of inflow flood overtopping risk isincreased Risk overtopping increases while the uncertainty of reservoir geometry increased Also damreliability is decreased by malfunction of spillway s gates Based on this analysis both the effect of wind andflood together influence the overtopping risk of earth dam KeywordsUncertainty Risk analysis Overtopping Monte Carlo Simulation Vanak dam

منصوري، نيكو

تحليل خطر پذيري روگذري آب در سد با در نظرگرفتن جنبه هاي هيدروليكي و هيدرولوژيكي ﴿مطالعه موردي: سد ونك﴾

عدم قطعيت , تحليل ريسك , روگذري , شبيه سازي , مونت كارلو