پديد آورنده :
گوهري، عليرضا
عنوان :
ارائه راهكارهاي سازگاري با سطوح احتمالي مختلف تاثير تغيير اقليم بر منابع آب حوضه زاينده رود با رويكرد ديناميك سيستم ها
محل تحصيل :
اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده كشاورزي
صفحه شمار :
شانزده،203ص.: مصور،جدول،نمودار
يادداشت :
ص.ع.به فارسي و انگليسي
استاد راهنما :
سعيد اسلاميان، جهانگير عابدي كوپايي
استاد مشاور :
عليرضا مساح بواني، كاوه مدني
توصيفگر ها :
مديريت منابع آب , انتقال آب حوضه اي
تاريخ نمايه سازي :
9/10/92
استاد داور :
منوچهر حيدرپور، سعيد سلطاني، حسين صمدي بروجني
كد ايرانداك :
ID590 دكتري
چكيده فارسي :
به فارسي و انگليسي: قابل رويت در نسخه ديجيتالي
چكيده انگليسي :
206 Adaptation Strategies to Different Probability Levels of Climate Change Impacts on Zayandeh Rud River Basin s Water Resources by System Dynamics Approach Alireza Gohari alirezagohari@gmail com Date of Submission October 2 2013 Department of Water Engineering College of Agriculture Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran 11st Supervisor Dr S S Eslamian saeid@cc iut ac ir 22nd Supervisor Dr J Abedi Koupai koupai@cc iut ac ir 31st Advisor Dr A R Massah Bavani armassah@ut ac ir 42nd Advisor Dr K Madani kaveh madani@ucf eduCollege Graduate Coordinator Dr M M MajidiAbstractZayandeh Rud River Basin is one of the most important basins in central Iran which has beencontinually challenged by water stress during the past 60 years This study evaluates climatechange impacts on the basin s water resources during the 2015 2044 A multi model ensemblescenarios framework is used to deal with uncertainties in climate change projections Onaverage the monthly temperature in the upper sub basin of Zayandeh Rud River Basin isexpected to increase by 0 46 0 76oC under climate change Annual precipitation is expected todecrease by 14 38 Maximum monthly precipitation reduction 6 55 is expected to occur inwinter while monthly precipitation might increase in some other months Global warming isexpected to reduce the Zayandeh Rud s peak stream flow and the amplitude of its seasonalrange One of the main objectives of this study is to evaluate the reliability of inter basin watertransfer to meet the growing water demand in the Basin A system dynamics model is developedto capture the interrelationships between different sub systems of the river basin namely thehydrologic socioeconomic and agricultural sub systems The results from simulating a range ofpossible policy options indicate that supplying more water to the basin without considering thedynamics of the interrelated problems will eventually lead to increased water demand It isdemonstrated that inter basin water transfer is an inadequate water management policy causingsignificant unintended side effects in the Zayandeh Rud River Basin management system Inparticular policy makers should consider minimizing agricultural water demand throughchanging crop patterns as an effective policy solution for the basin s water problems Keywords Water resource management Climate change Water transfer System dynamics Zayandeh Rud Iran1 Associate Professor Department of Water Engineering College of Agriculture Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran 2 Professor Department of Water Engineering College of Agriculture Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran 3 Associate Professor Department of Irrigation and Drainage College of Abouraihan Tehran University Pakdasht 3391653755 Iran 4 Associate Professor Department of Civil Environmental and Construction Engineering University of Central Florida Orlando FL 32816 USA
استاد راهنما :
سعيد اسلاميان، جهانگير عابدي كوپايي
استاد مشاور :
عليرضا مساح بواني، كاوه مدني
استاد داور :
منوچهر حيدرپور، سعيد سلطاني، حسين صمدي بروجني
