اثرات اقليم روي پراكنش مكاني درمنه دشتي ﴿Artemisia sieberi﴾ با استفاده از مدلهاي پراكنش گونه اي ﴿مطالعه موردي: استان اصفهان﴾

چكيده انگليسي :

Effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of Artemisia sieberi Besser using species distribution models case study Isfahan province Ehsan pezhhan Email Address r pezhhan@yahoo com 17 Sep 2013 Department Of Natural Resources Isfahan University Of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran Degree M Sc Language Farsi Supervisors Mostafa tarkesh esfhani tarkesh es@yahoo com Mohammadreza Vahabi Vahabi@cc iut ac ir Abstract potential habitat evaluation and study of species geographical distribution is a key subject in most of ecological environment protection and wildlife as well as variation trends studies in different scales Species distribution prediction models have been becoming one of the important tools to prepare potential conservation map in recent years Typically such models define relationship between environmental variables and species events presence and absence to evaluate environmental conditions as mathematical models Species distribution models can be used to assess climate change scenarios and their effect on species geographical distribution The currentt study is aimed to predict potential distribution of Artemisia sieberi and its distribution under different climate scenarios in years 2030 and 2080 Artemisia sieberi is one of the most widely species distributed in Isfahan province and is important in respect to soil conservation and fodder production Logistic regression was used to mapping Artemisia sieberi potential habitat For this 19 climate variables and 3 physiographic variables with resolution 1 km was prepared using IPCC About 100 sites were recorded as presence absence sites using stratified random sampling For each sample site data for species presence and absence and environmental variables were recorded and species distribution and environmental factors was specified using logistic regression and finally map for Artemisia sieberi potential distribution was produced in Isfahan province Results obtained from logistic regression model showed that the main climatic factors affecting Artemisia sieberi distribution included minimum temperature for coldest month the most humid season mean temperature annual participation and participation in coldest season Based on models prediction about 2767110 h 25 83 of province area had probability occurrence of 0 75 1 for Artemisia sieberi presence Regression model was evaluated using statistical coefficient of Kappa and AUC of ROC plot about 0 66 and 0 86 which is fall into high precision models as per Lendice and Koch classification In order to evaluate effect of climate change on geographical distribution of Artemisia sieberi map for 19 climatic variables were prepared by three climate model Ccsm3 Cgcm3 and Hadcm3 under climate change scenario for years 2030 and 2080 Results from prediction of species distribution using data from both models Cgcm3 and Hadcm3 for years 2030 and 2080 showed the same trend so that both models accounted for probability of occurrence event about 2 to 4 in year 2030 and 7 to 10 in year 2080 Both models represent increased climate space for species in centre and northwest of Isfahan province Prediction based in Ccsm3 mode data showed more reduction accounting for 17 for years 2030 and 22 for year 2080 Hence species distribution varies as climate changes and it dominated in north and northwest of province However it is worthy to note that soil properties affects species distribution which was not dealt with in the present research Keywords species distribution Artemisia sieberi logistic regression geographical information system climate change PDF created with pdfFactory trial version www pdffactory com

پژهان، احسان

اثرات اقليم روي پراكنش مكاني درمنه دشتي ﴿Artemisia sieberi﴾ با استفاده از مدلهاي پراكنش گونه اي ﴿مطالعه موردي: استان اصفهان﴾

رگرسيون لجستيك , سيستم اطلاعات جغرافيايي