10227

9445

كارشناسي ارشد

عمران - آب

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده عمران

1393

دوازده، 85ص.: مصور، جدول، نمودار

ص.ع. به فارسي و انگليسي

كيوان اصغري

18/3/94

مهدي قيصري، آزاده احمدي

1396/10/02

كتابنامه

عمران

مهندسي عمران

ID9445

86 Runoff Modeling Based on Hydro Information Technology and Uncertainty Analysis Mohammadreza Delavar m delavar@cv iut ac ir March 10 2015 Department of Civil engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisor Dr K Asghari Email address kasghari@cc iut ac irAbstractAlong with rapid population growth and increasing human needs water supply is of greatimportance Usage and management of water resources requires an understanding of hydrologicphenomenon which runoff is considered as one of the most important phases of this cycle Inorder to employ appropriate management policies and operational decisions for best practices ofwater resources runoff prediction as the reservoir input is of special significance Differentmodels with different structures can be used for estimation and prediction of the river flow andprovide present convincing results In this thesis HEC HMS model with SMA loss calculationmethod which is capable of simulating the inflow continuously time sequenced was selected asa river basin model for runoff prediction This model is utilized to simulate the daily Zayanderudreservoir inflow at Ghale Shahrokh station Daily discharge data for calibrating the model wasobtained for 4 years from 1992 to 1996 and consequently for validation from 2002 to 2006 HEC HMS model in the case where there is no distinction between runoff resulted from rainfallor snow has failed to provide acceptable results and the peak flows were estimated incorrectly The results showed that by considering the snow melt option and incorporated that into the model the HEC HMS model results are improved and model estimates of pick flows are muchcomparable to observed figures HEC HMS model results considering different goodness of fittests are R2 0 84 Nash Sutcliffe 0 77 Bias 4 3cms PTVE 14 9 RMSE 12 1cms andPW RMSE 14 1cms Comparing statistical and graphical HEC HMS Along with continuousSMA loss method model with other conceptual and black boxes models that were evaluated inthe same basin represents the model capabilities in integrated modeling of runoff in the dailyscale Evaluation of model uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and use of the most influentialmodel parameters including the maximum soil infiltration the impervious percentage and the soilpercolation with an uncertainty of 50 was performed The results indicated that the model isfairly reliable if it is subjected to considerable changes of input parameters Keywords Zayanderud basin Rainfall runoff simulation SMA loss method HEC HMS Monte Carlo analysis

كيوان اصغري

مهدي قيصري، آزاده احمدي