تدوين الگوي بهره‌برداري از مخزن سد در مواجه با شرايط كم‌آبي بر اساس قوانين محدودكننده (مطالعه موردي حوضه آبريز كرخه)

چكيده انگليسي :

119 Development of a reservoir operation model for dry conditions based on the hedging rules A Case Study Karkhe River Basin Atiye Fathi atiye fathi@yahoo com June 21 2017 Department of Civil Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran Degree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisor A Ahmadi aahmadi@cc iut ac ir AbstractManagement of surface water resources systems in water shortage conditions has many problems due to manyuncertainties unexpected river flows and the multipurpose nature of water supply systems One of the policiesfor operating reservoirs in drought conditions is the hedging rule method In this method threshold limits areconsidered for water demands If the supply of water is subject to stress the amount of supply is limited usingthreshold limits and water is distributed in a way that water is stored for water shortage periods One of the problems that arise in reservoir real time operation is forecasting the inflow into the reservoir infuture periods This leads to uncertainties arising from the prediction In this research the hedging rule methodin the operation of the reservoir is used for a number of future time steps decision horizon The forecasthorizon is determined in order to decide the number of future time steps that affect the decision making indecision horizon The application of this method is expressed in avoiding additional uncertainty in the operationmodel Considering that the share of agricultural section demands is significant relative to the demands of thedrinking industry and the environment sections so in another section of this research the economic modelwas developed with the aim of maximizing the benefit from agricultural crops and it was optimized using thegenetic algorithm Afterwards to investigate the effect of the hedging rule model constraints on the results ofthe economic model a combined model of economic hedging rule was developed in the form of the two objective model and was optimized with NSGA II algorithm The results of the two objective model wereassessed with the TOPSIS method and were compared with the results of the economic model The results of the implementation of the hedging rule policies in the case study of Karkheh Dam indicate thatalthough the reliability index for supplying water demand was reduced from 40 1 in observation to 34 inthe hedging rule model but the severity of the vulnerabilities decreased from 100 3 mcm in observation to48 79 mcm in the hedging model The results of forecast horizon implementation showed that in order tomake a decision for the first time step in the future only the data of the four subsequent periods will affect theresults of the first step Considering the economic model it is shown that in the current situation with thecultivation of 135991 ha of crops the obtained benefit of 30 thousand dollars which has increased by 35thousand dollars 12 in the economic model without development of the cultivated area 134991 4 ha andwith cultivation of crops with higher yields Also the gross consumption of water in agricultural land per hectare 10362 2 m 3 ha has decreased 823 m 3 ha relative to the observed condition 11185 4 m 3 ha ByRegarding the entry of hedging rule constraints in the two objective problem the results showed that the totalcultivated area in the two objective model has decreased by 11 compared to the economic model Thereliability index in supplying water demands in the two objective model 5 3 compared to the economicmodel 38 6 and the severity of the vulnerability in the two objective model 44 3 mcm compared to theeconomic model 84 9 mcm has decreased Therefore in two objective model by accepting more shortageperiods reduced reliability severe water shortages and failure of the system have been prevented reducedvulnerability Also by determining the reservoir rule curve and applying the hedging coefficients as decisionvariables the release from the reservoir has decreased by 12 compared to the economic model This has led

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تدوين الگوي بهره‌برداري از مخزن سد در مواجه با شرايط كم‌آبي بر اساس قوانين محدودكننده (مطالعه موردي حوضه آبريز كرخه)

قوانين محدودكننده , افق پيش بيني و تصميم گيري , بهينه سازي اقتصادي - جيره بندي , الگوريتم NSGA-II ۵ , روش TOPSIS