13417

12221

كارشناسي ارشد

آلودگي هاي محيط زيست

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده منابع طبيعي

۱۳۹۶

دوازده، ۸۲ص.: مصور، جدول، نمودار

نوراله ميرغفاري، حسين مرادي

علي لطفي، حسين بشري

1397/01/18

كتابنامه

منابع طبيعي

مهندسي منابع طبيعي

ID12221

Evaluation of air pollution management of Isfahan City using Bayesian Networks Maedeh Nikkhah far m nikkhah@na iut ac ir January 14 2018 Departmentof Natural Resources Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree MSc Language PersianDr Nourollah Mirghaffari mnorolah @cc iut ac irDr Hossein Moradi hossein moradi@cc iut ac irAbstractToday the advancement of technology and industrial development together with other achievements have brought many harmful effects to human life one of which is air pollution The crisis of airpollution in the metropolis of Iran has become one of the main environmental challenges Therefore inorder to reduce the air pollution of metropolis of Isfahan management decisions are necessary Airpollution modeling can play an effective role in the development of air pollution control andmanagement programs One of these methods is the use of Bayesian networks Bayesian BeliefNetworks BBN is a kind of graphical model that incorporates probabilistic relationships amongvariables and integrate different sources of knowledge In this study the effective variables andmanagement measures were identified on air pollution in Isfahan city and experts point of view wascollected in the form of a questionnaire Then an influence diagram was developed construct a causeand effect relationships between the variables affecting air pollution and air pollution management Then by completing the conditional probability tables based on expert opinions these charts turnedinto the Bayesian model The overall structure of the networks was reviewed by the relevant experts Quantifying the variables relationships was performed in Netica Software and the behavior of themodels was evaluated using sensitivity analysis The results of air pollution model showed that airpollution in Isfahan was 14 7 in the class 0 50 41 5 in the class 50 100 23 5 in the level of 100 150 11 9 in 150 200 and 8 39 on the 200th floor According to this result air pollution in Isfahanis Fairly high and the number of clean days is low The results of this model were compared with theair quality index of years 92 to 94 and the model s accuracy was fixed The results of the sensitivityanalysis of the air pollution model showed that the Aerosol had the most effect on the final node Theresults of the management network model showed that according to experts air pollution managementin Isfahan was 39 5 at a low level 24 3 at moderate level and 36 2 at high levels According tothese results air pollution management in Isfahan is weak and does not respond to this volume ofpollution The results of sensitivity analysis of air pollution management network have shown thatcontrolling the polluting gases has the greatest impact on air pollution management Keywords Air pollution Bayesian Networks Management Netica Isfahan City

نوراله ميرغفاري، حسين مرادي

علي لطفي، حسين بشري