In recent years, land use changes have taken place in Isfahan Metropolis and trying to simulate it spatially is necessary to make appropriate decisions in land use management programs and achieve sustainable development. Therefore, the purpose of the first and second part of the current research is modelling land use allocation and analyzing these changes. For this purpose, the assessment and modelling of agriculture land use, urban and industrial development in Isfahan Metropolis region were carried out using multi-criteria eva‎luation models. First, the required data were identified and their suitability maps were prepared by the fuzzy method. Next, the weight of the elements was determined using the hierarchical analysis process. Then the designed maps were combined using the weighted linear combination method and finally, the final land suitability maps were prepared and classified according to the experts' opinions. The results showed that about 586.9, 197.2 and 24 square kilometers (20.3, 6.9 and 0.08 percent) of the region's total area are suitable for agricultural, urban and industrial land uses, respectively. Also, the northwest and southeast of the region are problematic areas. In the second part, the region's land use and land cover change from 1996 to 2018 were investigated and its future changes were predicted for 2030 and 2050. For this purpose, object-oriented and decision tree methods were applied to Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite images. The combined model of cellular automata and Markov chain was used To analyze the past trend and predict future land use changes. Then, the changes in land use were investigated using landscape metrics. The results showed that the area of residential land increased from 13016 hectares to 154194 hectares between 1996-2050, while the area of agricultural land decreased from 177067 hectares to 40000 hectares simultaneously. According to the second part's results, most changes are related to the increase in residential areas and the decrease in agricultural lands. The results of this research can be considered a multi-criteria decision-making analysis to gain deep insight into the sustainable use of natural resources. Based on that, three possible scenarios be designed and modeled. In the third part, system dynamics analysis was carried out for the five basins of the Zayandehroud river. The basin faces major environmental problems such as lack of water resources, population increase, urban development and agricultural land destruction. Therefore, the study area used the system dynamics approach (considering land use subsystems, water resources and population) for the first time. By using this model, complex connections between important variables of land use and water resources were described. The third part aims to examine the relationship and feedback between land uses and water resources in the region. The past land use changes were analyzed in the 5 Zayandehroud river basins and the future changes were predicted using these results. Based on the results, most changes will be related to the increase of residential areas and the reduction of agricultural lands. With the help of this model, the optimal pattern of regional sustainable development can be identified. In this thesis, the application of systemic analysis in spatial planning of land uses and the possibility of investigating the cause-and-effect relationships between variables and ecological and social factors in the discussion of regulating the relations between land uses and estimating the amount of land needed was investigated. The use of system analysis in the spatial planning of services provides the possibility of obtaining possible scenarios to direct the system in the desired direction. Over time, the program's efficiency and future land use scenarios can be predicted.

علي لطفي، سعيد پورمنافي

عليرضا سفيانيان، سعيد پور معصومي لنگرودي، سعيدرضا احمدي زاده

حسين مرادي، رضا جعفري، عبدالرسول سلمان ماهيني