توصيفگر ها :
همبست آب، انرژي و محيط زيست , نكسوس , مدل سازي , مكان يابي بهينه نيروگاه هاي خورشيدي , همبست , توزيع مكاني آلودگي , تحليل سناريو
چكيده انگليسي :
Achieving sustainable development requires a comprehensive and integrated approach to resource management. Today, researchers strive to examine the sustainability of various interconnected systems within an integrated framework. By adopting a holistic and integrative perspective, it is possible to attain sustainable and balanced development that meets the needs of the present generation while preserving the ability of future generations to benefit from these resources. The water, energy, and environment nexus approach employs scenario analysis to examine and assess the interrelated and simultaneous impacts of these resources, aiming to provide effective strategies for achieving sustainable development. In this research, alongside integrated water resource management, the correlations and interactions among water, energy, and environmental systems were analyzed from an integrative perspective. To implement this approach, two simulation models, a water simulator model and an energy simulator model, were developed. For the development of the energy simulator model, the comprehensive and powerful LEAP model was utilized. In this context, the energy model of Isfahan Province, encompassing all energy supply sources and various energy consumption sectors, was simulated. For the water simulator model, the WEAP model developed by Golmohammadi et al. (2015) was used for the Zayandehrud basin, the most important watershed in Isfahan Province. The analysis period spans 19 years from 2003 to 2021 with monthly time steps. The scenario years encompass a 5-year period from 2025 to 2029. Given that the model developed by Golmohammadi et al. spanned from 1991 to 2011, the water simulation model was updated and calibrated up to 2021. Additionally, to establish a connection between the water and energy sectors and to enable a more comprehensive assessment, the simulation of hydroelectric power generation at the Zayandehrud Dam was also incorporated into the water simulation model. In this research, efforts were made to utilize a vast amount of information related to water resources and consumption, energy supply and demand sectors, and greenhouse gas emission factors for the development of the models. In this context, eight scenarios were developed: (1) the business-as-usual scenario, (2) water demand management, (3) water supply management, (4) increasing power plant capacity, (5) solar energy, (6) expanding electric transportation, (7) increasing the capacity of Isfahan refinery, and (8) a combined scenario. The development of the models, their interconnection, and their calibration have been among the most important and extensive parts of this research. The results of the business-as-usual scenario indicated that in the future, we will face water and energy shortages for meeting demands, depletion of water resources, and increased pollution. The implementation of the water supply management scenario revealed that although transferring water from other basins would largely address the unmet water and electricity demands and improve the status of water resources, the water resources would remain unstable and greenhouse gas emissions would increase. In the demand management scenario, in addition to improving unmet water and electricity needs, the condition of water resources will also improve with a reduction in water consumption. However, in this scenario, there will also be an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In the scenario of increasing power plant capacity, the future electricity shortage was significantly reduced, but the production of greenhouse gases also had an increasing trend, and the condition of water resources reached their worst state. In the solar scenario, by developing solar power plants, we were able to reduce electricity shortages to the same extent as the power plant capacity expansion scenario and prevent further greenhouse gas emissions.
