Meat and its products have always played a significant role in the global food basket. Among them, chicken meat is more favored than red meat due to its rapid production cycle, relatively lower cost, and fewer adverse effects on human health. However, the supply chain of this product often faces challenges such as the emergence of novel diseases and shortages of poultry feed, which can disrupt its availability and lead to food insecurity. Therefore, enhancing the sustainability of the chicken meat supply chain is of particular importance. The aim of this study is to employ appropriate chicken meat production and storage in order to cope with the mentioned disruptions, which, in addition to preventing shortages and reducing cold storage waste, leads to maximizing the overall profit of the chicken meat production system. To achieve this, a mixed-integer linear programming model is developed and solved under deterministic conditions, ignoring disruptions. Then, to account for the risk of disruptions caused by avian disease outbreaks and poultry feed shortages, as well as the uncertainties associated with these disruptions, a two-stage scenario-based stochastic programming model was developed and its results were compared with those of the deterministic model. The developed models are implemented using the CPLEX solver in GAMS optimization software. Furthermore, the advantages of the two-stage stochastic programming approach over other methods are eva‎luated using the "Value of the Stochastic Solution (VSS)" and the "Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)." For model validation, a case study of the chicken meat supply chain in Isfahan province is conducted, with necessary data collected from the Veterinary Organization and Agricultural Jihad Organization of the province. The results indicate that using the two-stage stochastic programming approach instead of a mean-value approach can yield an economic benefit of approximately 27 billion tomans. Additionally, the findings show that proper storage of chicken meat, combined with decision-making approaches under uncertainty, not only prevents spoilage in cold storage but also plays a critical role in mitigating shortages and improving food security during disruptions.

فرشته پرورش

مهدي ايران پور , علي شاهنده نوك آبادي