موازنه سودآوري-پايداري در توسعه محصول سبز با در نظر گرفتن رقابت - خود‌جانشيني از نقطه نظر ذينفعان با استفاده از رويكرد نظريه بازي ها تحت اطلاعات كامل و اطلاعات ناقص

As environmental regulations tighten an‎d consumer awareness regarding climate change intensifies, manufacturers face a critical strategic dilemma: how to transition toward Green Product Development (GPD) without eroding the profitability of their established legacy products. This phenomenon, known as "market cannibalization," is traditionally viewed as an operational threat where new green products consume the market share of existing gray products. This doctoral dissertation challenges that conventional view, proposing a comprehensive game- theoretic framework that redefines cannibalization as a manageable an‎d potentially advantageous strategic lever for supply chain sustainability. The research models a multi- echelon supply chain consisting of manufacturers, retailers, an‎d government bodies, analyzing their interactions under two distinct environments: complete information an‎d incomplete information. To quantitatively assess the impact of introducing green products, the study introduces two novel metrics: the Cannibalization Effect Index (CEI) an‎d the Market Capture Index (MCI). These indices allow decision- makers to precisely identify the "tipping point" where the loss of legacy sales is outweighed by the acquisition of new eco- conscious market segments, thereby transforming self- competition into total market expansion. A defining contribution of this research is the incorporation of Bayesian Game Theory to address information asymmetry. In real- world scenarios, manufacturers often possess private information regarding their green production costs, which retailers an‎d consumers cannot directly observe. This study models this uncertainty using a signaling game framework, where the manufacturer’s pricing strategy serves as a signal of product authenticity. By characterizing Perfect Bayesian Equilibria, the model delineates the conditions under which "separating equilibria" exist—allowing genuine green manufacturers to distinguish themselves from "greenwashers" through strategic pricing, effectively mitigating consumer skepticism. Furthermore, this dissertation bridges the gap between operational management an‎d financial strategy by endogenizing the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Unlike static models that assume a fixed cost of debt, this framework links the firmʹs financing costs to its Environmental, Social, an‎d Governance (ESG) performance. The results demonstrate that a higher degree of product greenness improves the firm’s ESG rating, subsequently lowering the interest rates on debt. This financial benefit acts as a crucial subsidy, offsetting the higher marginal costs associated with green technologies an‎d the opportunity costs of cannibalized sales. Finally, the study extends the concept of cannibalization to the asset level, investigating the optimal timing for technological transition. By modeling "asset cannibalization," the research accounts for the sunk costs an‎d salvage values of legacy production lines. The findings suggest that an immediate, aggressive switch to green technology is not always optimal; rather, a phased transition, supported by dynamic government subsidies an‎d tariff policies, maximizes social welfare an‎d supply chain profitability. This dissertation provides a robust, mathematically grounded roadmap for managers an‎d policymakers to navigate the complex trade- offs of the green transition, ensuring that environmental goals act as a catalyst for, rather than a barrier to, economic growth.

مهدي علينقيان

حسين خسروشاهي

عطااله طالعي زاده , مهدي ايران پور , مرتضي راستي برزكي