ساخت و پرداخت مدل هاي ناهمفزود حمل و نقل براي شهر اصفهان

چكيده انگليسي :

developing transportation disaggregate models for city of Isfahan mahshid memari mahshidmemari@yahoo com 2008 12 28 Department of Industrial Systems Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree M Sc Language FarsiSayed Nader Shetab Bushehri Shetab@cc iut ac ir AbstractDependency of life quality improvement to the transportation has been driver of huge investments intransportation part in many countries in last fifty years Indeed the huge concentration of population andindustrial in the metropolises have increased the demand for transportation Rapid increase in passengerautomobile use has increased the traffic Accordingly in response to increased traffic policy makers considerand adopt alternative transportation policies including construction of a new road and subway lines as long term projects However capital constraints and long run construction periods have limited the developmentof equipment and facilities to meet these increased demands and have caused increasing congestion on roadsand on public transportation To alleviate such congestion policy makers increasingly rely on short termpolicies such as transportation demand management methods which achieve their goals by influencing onindividual behavior In this respect transportation comprehensive planning studies has prepared suitablecontext in reaching the ideal system Accurate planning in the field of transportation necessitates awarenessof transportation demand either in strategic or tactical or functional level Knowledge of demand scale andeffective elements in aggregate and disaggregate levels is among significant parts of these studies Withoutaccess to this kind of information these studies will face difficulties in selection of project type and its site But one of the criticisms is that aggregate data limit our understanding of individual travel behavior causedby the changes of transportation services As a result disaggregate travel demand models based on the datacollected at the household level and or at the individual level were developed Discrete choice models whichassume an individual evaluates a number of discrete alternatives through a random utility function departedfrom the conventional aggregate approach and represented the development of disaggregate behavioralmodels Modeling methods consist of the statistical techniques that underlie the demand analysis In recent decades there have been numerous advances in such techniques including disaggregate analysis and advanceddiscrete choice methods In addition increasingly rich data sets are becoming available includingtravel activity surveys With the statistical tools in place and the availability of improved data the focus intravel demand modeling now is to use this increased power to improve the behavioral realism In this thesis is attempted to evaluate transportation behavior of Isfahan metropolis settlers as much aspossible For this purpose disaggregate models are used and our focus is on discrete choice models Andwhereas data bank of transportation comprehensive studies for Isfahan metropolis limit contained manysocio economic data in relation to more than 110 000 individuals from this limit settlers models were madeand then were estimated in individual household behavior level Whereas the number of trips that one persongenerates in one day the destination that during trip enters to it and the trip mode that selects in trip process all are person s choices Then it was tried to use statistical choice models in making disaggregate models These models make possible the probability selection of transportation alternatives by their random utilityfunction Hence ordered logit multinomial logit and nested logit models were used to make trip generation trip destination and mode choice models respectively Finally some of parameters that determine directionand amount of socio economic variables effect in transportation behavior of Isfahan metropolis settlers areestimated It should be Not

معماري، مهشيد

ساخت و پرداخت مدل هاي ناهمفزود حمل و نقل براي شهر اصفهان

توليد سفر , توزيع سفر