مدل سازي آورد رودخانه زاينده رود با استفاده از مدل SWAT

چكيده انگليسي :

93 Marjan nikoudel marjannikudel@yahoo com Date of Submission 2012 02 20 Department of Natural Resources Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran Degree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisor Saeid Soltani SsSupervisor Monireh FaramarziAbstractPopulation growth and industrialization are the major factors increasing demand of water resources andposing challenge in reconciling this renewable but limited natural element The Zayandeh Rud river basin incentral Iran with a large domestic agricultural and industrial water uses facing an increased complexity inmanaging water resources to make balance between water supply and demand A sound knowledge of waterresources availability is needed for the long term planning and management of this basin In this study weused the physical and semi distributed SWAT model to simulate hydrological cycle taking into considerationof Zayandeh Rud dam operation inter basin water transfer projects and consumptive water use in the basin The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program SUFI2 was used to calibrate and validate the two separatehydrologic model representing water situation for 1956 1970 before construction of dam and 1985 2005 after construction of dam SUFI2 is a tool for multi site calibration and uncertainty analysis It is capable ofanalyzing a large number of parameters and measured data from many gauging stations simultaneously Itsefficiency in terms of the smallest number of model runs to achieve good calibration and predictionuncertainty results is of great importance when dealing with computationally intensive complex large scalemodels Two indices were used to quantify the goodness of calibration uncertainty performance the P factor which is the percentage of data bracketed by the 95PPU band maximum value 100 and the R factor which is the average width of the uncertainty band divided by the standard deviation of thecorresponding measured variable The measured and simulated data were compared using a criterionefficiency br2 which is modified version of coefficient of determination r 2 The calibration validation uncertainty performances were satisfactory for the whole basin This was different among hydrometricstations The average annual values of P factor R factor br2 and r2 for the whole basin were 0 73 1 15 0 53 and 0 56 for the period 1956 1970 and 0 49 1 07 0 57and 0 59 for the period 1985 2005 The two calibratedvalidated models were used to quantify all components of the water balance including blue water flow wateryield plus deep aquifer recharge green water flow actual and potential evapotranspiration and green waterstorage soil moisture at sub basin level with monthly time steps The prediction uncertainty of the long term average annual water resources components indicated no substantial change in the present compare tothe past period However the averaged monthly values showed a considerable change in their spatial andtemporal pattern This is partially due to the water management projects e g dam construction and partlybecause of the change in temporal pattern of precipitation in the region This study lay a basis to develop anIntegrated Water Resources Management tool in the basin for advanced studies concerning water supply demand issues as well as climate change impact and adaptation strategies and to analyze different policyoptions and to explore possibilities to enhance water productivity in the basin in favor of stakeholders anddecision makers in near and far future Keywords SWAT model Zayandeh Rud Calibration Validation Uncertainty

نيكودل، مرجانه

مدل سازي آورد رودخانه زاينده رود با استفاده از مدل SWAT

واسنجي , اعتبار سنجي , عدم قطعيت , مولفه هاي منابع آب