7798

7262

كارشناسي ارشد

آبياري و زهكشي

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده كشاورزي

1391

دوازده،73ص.: مصور،جدول،نمودار

ص.ع.به فارسي و انگليسي

سعيد اسلاميان، بهروز مصطفي زاده

جهانگير عابدي كوپائي، محمد شايان نژاد

29/3/92

منوچهر حيدرپور، حسين خادمي

مهندسي كشاورزي

ID7262

به فارسي و انگليسي: قابل روويت در نسخه ديجيتالي

57 Zhao Y P Camberlin and Y Richard 2005 Validation of a coupled GCM and projection of summer rainfall change over South Africa using a statistical downscaling method Climate Res 28 109 122 58 Zorita V Storch 1999 The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique comparison with more complicated methods J Climate 12 2474 2489 The Impact of Climate Change on Prediction of the Future of Wet and Dry Periods in Some Parts of Iran Using SDSM Model Sattar Saraeian sattar saraeian@yahoo com 2013 1 19 College of Agriculture Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran Degree M Sc Language Farsi Saeid Eslamian saeid@cc iut ac ir Behrouz Mostafazadeh Fard behrouz@cc iut ac ir Abstract Various factors such as growth of industries and factories and the environment and forests destruction by human caused increase of greenhouse gases in the earth s atmosphere In general the increase of greenhouse gases is leading to changes in the earth s climates The most important effect of climate change is its impacts on atmospheric and climatic phenomena such as hurricanes floods hail drought heat waves and untimely coldness One of the first resources affected by these climate changes is water resources as they will change directly with changes in temperature and precipitation Global warming has significant effects on hydrological cycle and water resources systems so it could be considered as a major threat for water resources systems all over the world Climate change studies and consideration of climate scenarios in future period is one of the most efficient methods for analysis of this phenomenon in the future At present the most reliable tool for generating climate scenarios are the three dimensional coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models that called AOGCM This study explores climatic conditions of Mashhad Gorgan and Oroumieh synoptic weather stations for three near term middle and far periods to the year 2100 by using SDSM software and HADCM3 model data under A2 emission scenario The results of the calibration and validation of temperature and precipitation as climatic parameters in studied stations show the desired accuracy in estimating the parameters in the final output so the downscaling process can be done for future periods The results showed that the mean minimum and maximum temperature and annual rainfall will have an incremental trend until 2100 in studied stations Also the temperature change in Gorgan station is negligible in comparison with two other stations this shows the impact of climate change in temperate and pluvious regions is less than other areas The results of comparing the average annual rainfall in the past and the future for the stations show that the average rainfall in Gorgan station will decrease 8 6 percent up to 2100 on average however in Mashhad and Oroumieh it will have an increase of 40 and 32 percent respectively Also in this research PDF created with pdfFactory trial version www pdffactory com

سعيد اسلاميان، بهروز مصطفي زاده

جهانگير عابدي كوپائي، محمد شايان نژاد

منوچهر حيدرپور، حسين خادمي