8667

8048

كارشناسي ارشد

آب

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده عمران

1392

هشت،109ص.: مصور،جدول،نمودار

ص.ع.به فارسي و انگليسي

حميدرضا صفوي

آزاده احمدي

17/1/93

سعيد اسلاميان، كيوان اصغري

مهندسي عمران

ID8048

به فارسي و انگليسي: قابل رويت در نسخه ديجيتالي

The Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Arid and Semi arid Zones A Case Study Zayandeh roud River Basin Farzad Espanani f spanani@cv iut ac ir 2013 14 09 Department of Civil engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran Degree M Sc Language Farsi Supervisor Dr H R Safavi hasafavi@cc iut ac ir Dr A Ahmadi aahmadi@cc iut ac irAbstract Rising concentration of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences forthe global climate with highest effects in human life and agricultural sectors Therefore forecast of climate changes in future is essential The main goal of this research issimulating daily precipitation and the temperature for the near 2021 2050 and far 2070 2099 future The most common method of developing climate scenarios for quantitativeimpact assessments is using results from AOGCM experiments Each AOGCMs hasdifferent simulation of the future AOGCM models typically divide the atmosphere andocean into a horizontal grid with a horizontal resolution of 2 to 4 latitude and longitude with 10 to 20 layers in the vertical So there is need to a method for obtaining high resolution climate or climate change information from relatively coarse resolution globalclimate models GCMs Because of the uncertainties in GCM models and according torecent studies in many areas in the world multimodel ensembles are believed to providethe most robust climate change information The first step after getting the GCMs outputis getting the value of variables at the station So we need to an interpolation method tointerpolate between variables value in GCMs Towards to do that we use IDW InverseDistance Weighting The next step is forming a multimodel ensemble and the problem ishow to weight each GCM In this research we considered four weighting approaches 1 REA 2 Raisenen method 3 MOTP and 4 the equally weighting approach Eachapproaches assesses GCMs performance upon the some criterions and weights the GCMs The observed data for climate variables in the Zayandeh Roud River Basin for 2001 2009are used to compare each multimodel Better simulation the synthetic data for 2001 2009 respect to observed data chooses the best weighting method for forming a multimodel tosimulate the temperature and the precipitation in near and far futures we used the chosenweighting approach The synthetic minimum and maximum temperature for near and farfutures increased in whole the year but that s different for precipitation Althoughprecipitation will decrease in both future periods it s not the same in whole the year Itincrased in summer and decreased in winter Keywords Climate Change AOGCM Weighting Method Multimodel Ensemble IDW

حميدرضا صفوي

آزاده احمدي

سعيد اسلاميان، كيوان اصغري