9434

8716

كارشناسي ارشد

كشاورزي - آبياري و زهكشي

اصفهان: دانشگاه صنعتي اصفهان، دانشكده كشاورزي

1393

سيزده،99ص.: مصور،جدول،نمودار

ص.ع.به فارسي و انگليسي

سعيد اسلاميان

محمد شايان نژاد، اسماعيل لندي

13/10/93

عليرضا سلطاني تودشكي، سعيد سلطاني كوپايي

مهندسي كشاورزي

ID8716

101 Impact of Climate Change on the Future Peak Discharge Case study Behesht abad Basin Milad Naderi Beni miut48@yahoo com August 16 2014 Department of Water Engineering Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree M Sc Language FarsiS S Eslamian saeid@cc iut ac irAbstractIn recent decades increasing the industrial activities and greenhouse gases emissions changed the ClimateBalance on Earth This phenomenon influence on the different systems involved in human life soinvestigating this phenomenon became one of the most important scientific subjects in recent years Water resource is one of the most important resources that affected by Climate Change so the variationof temperature and precipitation directly affects these resources The proper maintenance and operation ofwater resources is one of the important duty for water professionals Global warming has a significantimpact on the hydrological cycle and related processes However the report shows there isn t enoughwater in many parts of the world to meet basic human needs Iran is one of the Arid and semi arid parts ofthe world so it is essential to evaluating the effects of Climate Change on Water resources and improvingthe necessary actions The aim of this study is investigate future periods of peak discharges in Behesht abad the sub Catchment basins of Northern Karun For this purpose the output of 7 general circulationmodels of the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the basin inthe periods 2015 2044 and 2045 2074 and 1971 2000 base period of two scenarios A2 and B1 weretaken The models output change into three models includes critical ideal and medium micro scalemodels that introduced exponential LARS WG The results showed the increasing of 16 and 9 precipitation on first and second periods and increasing the 1 4 and 1 2 C temperature under scenariosA2 and B1 Finally the best model was selected by comparing the output of each model on the basicperiod and observed data The results of GFDL CM2 1 model showed that this is best model in theregion so downscale data from this model under the A2 scenario as the critical scenario introduced tothe HEC HMS model to simulate runoff in future periods Simulated runoff discharge compared withobservations in the first and second periods 21 and 19 percent increase respectively Key Words Climate Change General Circulation Model Behesht Abad Peak Flow LARS WG HEC HMS

سعيد اسلاميان

محمد شايان نژاد، اسماعيل لندي

عليرضا سلطاني تودشكي، سعيد سلطاني كوپايي