مدل سازي هيدرولوژيكي اثرات تغييرات كاربري اراضي و اقليم بر مولفه هاي منابع آب حوزه آبخيز جوانمردي با استفاده از مدل SWAT

چكيده انگليسي :

Hydrological Modelling of the Landuse and Climate Change Effects on the Water Resource Components of Javanmardi Watershed using SWAT Model Navid Hossein Zadeh n hoseyn@ag iut ac ir October 01 2014 Department of Soil Science College of Agriculture Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan 84156 83111 IranDegree M Sc Language FarsiSupervisors M A Hajabbasi hajabbas@cc A Besalatpou a besalatpour@yahoo comAbstractTo know water resources and analysis of its spatiotemporal distribution in arid and semi arid regions is of greatsignificance for long term water and land use planning and management In this study soil and water assesmenttool SWAT model was used to predict the effects of climate change and land use on runoff and water resourcescomponents in a part of Lordegan watershed central Iran In order to assess the effects of land use change onrunoff production and water resources three different maps including the past 1988 the current 2010 and thecapability land use maps were acquired Monthly runoff simulated by SWAT model using the current land usemap model I was used for the calibration and validation analysis using SUFI 2 algorithm Then the optimizedparameters obtained from the calibration analysis were entered into the Model II constructed model using theland capability map and Model III constructed model using the past land use map in the environment ofSWAT CUP software To investigate climate change in near future 2011 2039 intermediate future 2040 2069 and far future 2070 2099 we used the future climate projections from HadCM3 under A2 emissionscenario that have been downscaled based on the observed data of CRU dataset and CO 2 concentration predictedbased on the A2 scenario emission Percentage of changes in precipitation and average monthly temperature datawere calculated and fed into the existing SWAT hydrological models models I and II In results the obtainedvalues of both R2 and NS in calibration were 0 83 and r factor and p factor values were 1 06 and 0 49 respectively For the validation step the R2 and NS coefficients were 0 75 and 0 74 respectively The values ofthese coefficients were 0 74 and 0 73 for the Model II and 0 71 and 0 71 for the Model III respectively Thepercentage changes in future precipitation for different months of the year varied from 5 38 to 287 such thatthe greatest decreases in precipitation occurred in June in the far future The highest obtained increases weresimulated for the warm season of the year in September in the intermediate future The average monthlytemperature in all three periods was increased except during the month of February in the near future Thisincrease was from 0 65 in April for the near future to 6 2 in August for the far future Land use change hadsignificant effect on both base and peak flows Such that for the past period 1996 2011 the minimum baseflow and maximum peak flow were encountered for the Model I However the impact of climate change onrunoff was greater than the land use change Such that the values of changes in peak flow and base flow in bothinvestigated models constructed using current land use map and land capabilities map in all three periods weregreater than that for the past period Overall the changes for the first model was greater than the second model The simulated blue water and green water resources were affected by land use change and distribution of theprecipitation in the study area So that the lowest precipitation was simulated for the central and northern areas ofthe study area The least amounts of the blue water and green water green water flow storage were obtained forthese areas Likewise the southern parts with the highest precipitation proportion had the highest amount ofwater resources In the future periods like the intermediate and far future the components were affected byclimate changes and the land In all scenarios the results were negative for all components of water resources inthe first model and values of water resources had drastic cha

حسين زاده، نويد

مدل سازي هيدرولوژيكي اثرات تغييرات كاربري اراضي و اقليم بر مولفه هاي منابع آب حوزه آبخيز جوانمردي با استفاده از مدل SWAT

الگوريتم SUFI-2 , آب آبي , آب سبز , رواناب